Former President Donald Trump has been convicted on all charges in his hush money trial. The conviction marks Trump as the first former or sitting U.S. president to be found guilty of a crime, and the first presumptive major-party nominee to become a convicted felon.
Trump, who plans to appeal the conviction, faces sentencing on July 11, where he could theoretically receive prison time and a hefty fine. This conviction throws the 2024 presidential race into uncharted territory.
“We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what’s going to happen. But there is nothing in the record that comes even close to this” said Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University.
Trump secured the Republican nomination earlier this year and is set to be formally nominated at the party’s convention just days after his sentencing. Current polls show him in a tight race with President Joe Biden and holding a slight edge in key swing states.
However, these surveys suggest that the conviction could shift voter sentiment.
In exit polls from the Republican primaries, a significant portion of voters indicated they would not support Trump if he were convicted of a felony. An April survey by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of Trump supporters would reconsider their backing in the event of a conviction.
“The real verdict is going to be [on] 5 November, by the people,” Trump said after leaving the courtroom.
Doug Schoen, a pollster who worked with Democratic President Bill Clinton and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, believes the impact of the hush money case might diminish by election time.
“What voters will be thinking about in November is inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia, and the money that is being spent on Israel and Ukraine,” he said.
Nevertheless, even a minor dip in Trump’s support could be crucial in a close race. Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, highlighted that younger voters and college-educated suburbanites are particularly hesitant about Trump.
“The guilty verdict is going to further shore up those concerns,” she said.
Despite the conviction, many leading Republicans have rallied behind Trump.
House Speaker Mike Johnson called the trial “a shameful day in American history,” dismissing it as a political exercise rather than a legal one.
Over the past eight years, Trump has repeatedly defied predictions of political downfall. His 2016 campaign weathered numerous scandals, including the infamous Access Hollywood tape. His party largely supported him through two impeachments and the aftermath of the Capitol attack on January 6, 2021.
“It’s axiomatic at this point, but Trump’s continued support, despite the kind of scandal that would have scuttled literally any other previous candidate in American history, is truly astounding,” said Engel.
Trump’s conviction may change the political landscape, especially if his appeals fail and he faces prison. However, it could also become just another episode in his resilient political career.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University known for his accurate presidential race predictions since 1984, noted the significance of the event.
“History books will record this as a truly extraordinary, unprecedented event, but a lot will depend on what happens afterwards,” he said.