At 64, Nigeria is grappling with serious challenges that highlight the country’s decline since gaining independence from Britain on October 1, 1960. The country, once filled with hopes of prosperity, now faces economic struggles, insecurity, and an increasingly divided society. As political leaders continue to overlook these critical issues, many Nigerians feel there is little to celebrate.
Over the years, Nigeria has failed to live up to its potential. Despite being blessed with abundant natural resources, it remains reliant on foreign nations for basic needs. Political observers often point to the country’s flawed federal structure. “Nigeria operates like a unitary state, despite being a federation of more than 250 ethnic groups,” says one analyst. The tensions between these groups, who now live in “mutual suspicion, distrust, and disharmony,” have only worsened over time.
Compared to China, which shares October 1 as its national day, Nigeria’s progress is starkly underwhelming. China’s GDP stands at $17.96 trillion, while Nigeria’s has plummeted to $252 billion in 2022. This disparity underscores the lost opportunities and the mismanagement that have plagued Nigeria for decades.
Bleak Economic Outlook
Nigeria’s economy is in dire straits. The country heavily depends on oil revenue, a risky strategy in an era of fluctuating oil prices. In 2014, Nigeria was Africa’s largest economy, boasting a GDP of $510 billion. However, a series of economic missteps has seen that figure shrink. Nigeria is now the continent’s fourth-largest economy, struggling to keep up with its peers.
In the eight years leading up to May 2023, terrorism, banditry, and separatist agitations claimed over 63,000 lives, according to reports. The fragile state index, compiled by the Fund for Peace, ranks Nigeria 15th out of the most fragile nations, placing it alongside Guinea and Libya. Under President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s fifth leader since the Fourth Republic began in 1999, these numbers have not improved. “The situation has not improved under the current leadership,” a local commentator noted grimly.
Infrastructure development has stagnated as well. Nigeria’s infrastructure stock, estimated at 30% of its GDP, falls far short of the 70% needed for sustainable growth. According to the World Bank, the country requires $100 billion annually for 30 years to fix this gap, but progress remains slow. Electricity generation is another pressing issue. While South Africa and Egypt generate 58,000 megawatts each, Nigeria struggles to produce just 5,000 megawatts. As a result, 45% of Nigerians lack access to reliable electricity, highlighting the nation’s arrested development.
Hunger and Poverty Soar
Food security is another area of grave concern. Nigeria, with its population of 233 million, is unable to feed its people. The 2023 Global Hunger Index ranks Nigeria 109th out of 125 countries. With a hunger score of 28.3, the country is classified as having a “serious” hunger problem. The situation worsened after Tinubu’s government eliminated fuel subsidies, driving transportation costs up and leaving many citizens unable to afford basic necessities.
The poverty rate continues to rise. In 1980, the poverty rate stood at 27.2%, affecting 17.1 million people. By 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that 133 million Nigerians lived in multidimensional poverty. The World Bank added that recent policies had pushed an additional 7 million Nigerians into poverty, exacerbating the crisis.
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Fleeing Youths, Failing Health and Education
The country’s youth, frustrated by the lack of opportunities, are leaving Nigeria in droves, a phenomenon popularly called “japa.” Meanwhile, the education system is failing. Nigeria has the world’s second-largest out-of-school population, with 20.1 million children out of school. Strikes, poor infrastructure, and underfunded universities have hampered educational progress, and a new policy barring under-18s from university admission has sparked widespread discontent.
In healthcare, the situation is similarly bleak. With a significant number of medical professionals emigrating, the quality of care has deteriorated. The wealthy seek medical treatment abroad, costing Nigeria an estimated $2 billion annually in medical tourism, according to the Nigerian Medical Association.
Political Dysfunction and Calls for Change
Despite the grim outlook, Nigeria remains a democratic country. However, elections often end in court battles, with judges, rather than voters, determining the winners. “Democracy is functioning in name only,” remarked one political commentator. “Each election cycle deepens the divisions in the country.”
The Nigeria of today is a far cry from the promising nation it once was. In the early years of independence, the regions—North, East, and West—developed at their own pace under a true federalist system, leading to healthy competition. However, a 1966 military coup derailed the country’s progress. What followed was a civil war, and renewed separatist movements like Biafra continue to call for their own independent nation.
Political analysts suggest that Nigeria faces three options: maintain the status quo, reform its federal structure, or peacefully break up into smaller countries. The latter option draws comparisons to Czechoslovakia’s peaceful split in 1989. Others warn that failing to make these decisions could lead to violent disintegration, as witnessed in the former Yugoslavia. “Delay is dangerous,” cautioned a political analyst.