The political landscape in Northern Nigeria is becoming increasingly divided ahead of the 2027 presidential election, as leaders and groups in the region express conflicting opinions on President Bola Tinubu’s possible re-election.
While some prominent figures and groups in the core North are calling for Tinubu’s removal, minority groups in the Middle Belt, Southern Kaduna, and other parts of Northern Nigeria are throwing their support behind him.
Core North Pushes Against Tinubu
Several political and socio-cultural groups in the core North have expressed dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s leadership, accusing him of failing to deliver on his promises.
Ladan Salihu, spokesperson for the League of Northern Democrats, said that many Northerners regret voting for Tinubu in 2023, citing economic hardship, poverty, and insecurity.
“We don’t have a personal agenda against Tinubu, but we believe his government has not delivered,” Salihu said. “The performance indicators do not justify Northern support. Even those who voted for him are now filled with regret.”
He added that discussions were ongoing about fielding a strong northern candidate in 2027.
The National Coalition of Northern Groups also warned that Tinubu might lose Northern votes if economic conditions did not improve.
“The North holds the majority of votes, and if things do not change, people will not support him again,” said the coalition’s president, Jamilu Charanchi.
Babachir Lawal, a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, also joined the growing opposition against Tinubu.
“The North is mobilizing with a consensus that Bola Tinubu must step down in the 2027 election,” Lawal said. “I may not have always agreed with Nasir El-Rufai, but on this issue, I will work with him to stop Tinubu from winning.”
El-Rufai, a former governor of Kaduna State, has also been vocal about his discontent with the ruling party. He recently criticized the All Progressives Congress (APC), saying the party lacked internal democracy and proper leadership structures.
“I no longer recognize the APC,” El-Rufai posted on social media. “No party organ has met in two years—no caucus, no NEC, nothing.”
Minority Groups Rally Behind Tinubu
Despite opposition from the core North, several minority groups in Northern Nigeria have declared their support for Tinubu.
The Middle Belt Forum (MBF) said the region had received a better deal under Tinubu than during the previous administration of Muhammadu Buhari.
“We are having a better deal under Bola Tinubu than under Buhari, even though we are all experiencing economic hardship,” said MBF spokesperson Luka Binniyat.
He pointed to key appointments of Middle Belt indigenes in Tinubu’s government, such as the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume (Benue State), and the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda (Plateau State).
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Similarly, the Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU) praised Tinubu for appointing individuals from Southern Kaduna to key positions, including Gen. Christopher Musa as Chief of Defence Staff.
“The southern part of Kaduna is willing to partner with whoever is ready to work with us to ensure our growth and development,” said SOKAPU spokesperson Josiah Abraks.
The Plateau Initiative for the Development and Advancement of the Natives (PIDAN) also expressed confidence in Tinubu’s leadership.
“He has indeed shown that he is a detribalized leader because he has been striving to spread developmental projects across every part of the country,” said PIDAN’s Secretary General, Dickson Auta.
Arewa Consultative Forum Remains Neutral
Meanwhile, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), a major political and cultural association in the North, has chosen to remain neutral.
“What we normally do at ACF is to highlight critical issues that the people should consider when choosing a candidate, irrespective of their political party,” said ACF Secretary General Murtala Aliyu. “We do not involve ourselves in promoting or antagonizing any candidate.”
The ACF’s response came after APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje urged northern politicians to abandon their presidential ambitions in 2027, insisting that Tinubu would serve two terms.
Tinubu’s Fate Hinges on Economic Performance
Political analysts believe that Tinubu’s chances in 2027 will largely depend on how well he handles Nigeria’s economy and security situation before then.
“If he continues on this path, I can tell you clearly that people will not vote for him,” warned Jamilu Charanchi of the National Coalition of Northern Groups.
As the 2027 election draws closer, the divide between the core North and minority groups in the region is expected to widen, shaping the political future of Nigeria.