Fuel prices in Nigeria may increase in the coming days as the cost of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for crude, has surged to $79.76 per barrel. This marks a significant rise from the $72.88 per barrel recorded in December 2024, signaling potential hikes in the prices of refined petroleum products such as diesel and petrol.
Crude oil prices heavily influence the cost of refined petroleum products. According to industry sources, several fuel depots across Nigeria reported price increases for diesel on Friday, with further hikes expected soon.
The recent surge in Brent crude prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, including sanctions on Russian oil exports, and seasonal demand fluctuations in colder regions. Supply concerns have also played a role in driving up prices.
An oil and gas expert, Olatide Jeremiah, who serves as the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, explained how the crude price hike impacts refined products. “It implies that there is a possibility of increased fuel prices, particularly diesel prices,” Jeremiah said. “As of Friday, when Brent crude neared $80, prices selectively increased in some depots in Lagos, and on Monday, prices might be jacked up by importers because a large chunk of oil marketers import petroleum products and Brent crude is a major determining factor in the refining process.”
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Data from fuel depots in Lagos confirms these changes. For instance, the Nipco depot raised its diesel price by N70 per litre on Friday, moving from N1,050 to N1,120 per litre. Similarly, Prudent depot increased its diesel price from N1,025 to N1,045 per litre, marking the beginning of a broader price adjustment trend.
Jeremiah noted that the price adjustments by importers are inevitable due to the rising cost of procuring and shipping crude oil. “Brent crude serves as a benchmark for global petroleum product pricing, and importers must adjust their prices to cover higher costs,” he added.
This development comes as the Federal Government’s oil price benchmark in the 2025 budget estimates stands at $75 per barrel, indicating a potential mismatch between market realities and budgetary expectations.
With Brent crude now hovering near $80 per barrel, analysts warn that Nigerians should prepare for higher costs at the pump, particularly for diesel, as depot owners and marketers adjust to global oil market trends.